Lecture 29

Climate Change III: Adaptation

Byeong-Hak Choe
bchoe@geneseo.edu

SUNY Geneseo

November 15, 2024

Climate Adaptation: Wildfire Risk and Management

Wildfire Map

Smoke Map

Increasing Severity of Wildfires

  • Climate Change Effects:
    • Drought and Drier Conditions: Prolonged periods without rain.
    • Longer Fire Seasons: Extended periods suitable for fires.
  • Global Risk Increase:
    • Wildfires occurring in previously low-risk areas.
  • Statistics:
    • In the western U.S., average annual area burned increased by 1200% from the 1970s to the 2000s.
    • In 2020, U.S. wildfire damages totaled $16.5 billion USD.

Health and Environmental Impacts

  • Air Quality Degradation:
    • Woodsmoke contributes to 25% of Americans’ exposure to PM2.5 (fine particulate matter).
    • Associated with increased mortality and morbidity.
  • Case Studies:
    • Brazilian Amazon Fires: Smoke responsible for nearly 3,000 premature deaths.
    • Australian Fires (2019-2020): Health care costs increased by $1.95 billion AUD.

Economic Costs Beyond Immediate Damages

  • Infrastructure Damage:
    • Runoff and erosion leading to water quality issues.
    • Damage to roads, bridges, and reservoirs.
  • Agricultural and Recreational Losses:
    • Soil degradation affecting farming.
    • Loss of recreational areas due to fire damage.

Adaptation Policies for Wildfire Risk

Fuel Management

  • Prescribed Burns:
    • Controlled fires to reduce fuel load.
    • Mimics natural fire cycles.
  • Forest Thinning:
    • Removal of excess vegetation.
    • Reduces intensity of potential fires.

Adaptation Policies for Wildfire Risk

Response Preparedness

  • Increasing Firefighting Personnel:
    • More resources to combat fires.
  • Improved Information Coverage:
    • Early detection systems.
    • Public awareness campaigns.

Adaptation Policies for Wildfire Risk

Utility Policies

  • Power Shutoffs:
    • Utilities shut off power during high fire risk conditions.
    • Prevents fires caused by electrical equipment.

Adaptation Policies for Wildfire Risk

Building Codes and Development Restrictions

  • Wildfire-Resistant Building Codes:
    • Use of fire-resistant materials.
    • Design standards to prevent fire spread.
  • Restricting Development:
    • Limiting construction in fire-prone areas.
    • Zoning laws to manage land use.

Benefits of Mandatory Adaptation to Wildfires

Homeowners AND their Neighbors?

  • Objective: Assess effectiveness of mandatory vs. voluntary adaptation.

  • Data: Property-level data for U.S. homes exposed to wildfire (2000-2020).

  • Building Codes Reduce Losses:

    • Reduced average structure loss by 40%.
    • Reduced loss to neighboring homes by 6%.

  • Spatial Externalities:

    • Benefits extend beyond individual properties.

  • Benefit-Cost Analysis:

    • Building codes pass the test for new homes.
    • Not cost-effective for retrofitting existing homes.

Benefits of Mandatory Adaptation to Wildfires

Equity Considerations

  • Value of Homes:
    • Higher-value homes more likely to benefit.
  • Fuel Management Bias:
    • More likely near higher socio-economic status neighborhoods.
  • Policy Implications:
    • Need for equitable fire suppression efforts.
    • Universal building codes can promote fairness.