Forests
Economic puzzle
A standing forest grows in volume and provides habitat, recreation, carbon storage, and risk reduction. Harvest converts part of that stock into current revenue. The privately optimal rotation may differ from the socially preferred one.
Question directions
- How do timber prices, discount rates, or fire risk change optimal rotation age?
- Would a carbon payment materially delay harvest?
- How should public management value recreation or habitat alongside timber?
- When can fuel treatment create benefits outside the treated parcel?
Model hook
Use a Faustmann-style present-value comparison, then add one missing social value or risk:
LEV(T)=\frac{P\,V(T)-C(1+r)^T}{(1+r)^T-1},
where regeneration cost C is paid at the start of each rotation. State what the model holds fixed. A useful project changes one assumption—carbon value, probability of fire, amenity flow, or regeneration cost—and traces the decision effect.
Official starting evidence
- The U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program measures forest extent, condition, growth, removals, and mortality.
- The FIA database user guide helps translate plot, condition, and tree records into an analysis plan.
- State forestry agencies and national forests publish management plans, timber-sale records, and treatment information.
Feasible unit of analysis
Choose one ownership type, region, or forest-management decision. A transparent sensitivity analysis can be stronger than an ambitious causal claim with poorly matched data.
Plot-level forest measurements, county summaries, and management units answer different questions. Do not attach a stand-level behavioral claim to a regional aggregate without explaining the link.